NFL Point Spreads: Key Numbers
American football is all about NFL Point Spreads. This is because most players bet on the spread, not the moneyline. And so, instead of placing a bet on who’s going to win the game, you’re betting on who’s going to cover the spread. Now, it all starts with key numbers.
NFL Football Scoring Numbers:
- 3 points – field goals
- 6 points – touchdowns
- 1 point – PAT or point after touchdown
- 2 points – safety (offensive lineup stopped at their own end zone)
- 2 points – conversion (to score from 2-yard line after touchdown)
Out of these numbers, the key ones for NFL Point Spreads are 3 and 7. The reason is that these key numbers decide most games. In fact, the most common margin of victory in the National Football League is three points. So, we can conclude that the final decisive key number is 3, making 7 the second most important one. Example:
- Let’s say the Patriots are playing the Falcons.
- New England scored 2 TD’s, for a total of 14 points.
- And they also score 2 field goals, for a total of 6 points.
- Atlanta scored 2 TD’s, and just a single field goal.
- So, the Pats won 20-17, with 3 being the difference.
Here’s a different scenario:
- New England scored 3 TD’s, for a total of 21 points, and Atlanta 2 TD’s, for a total of 14 points.
- Neither team scored a field goal. And the final score was 21-14, with 7 being the difference.
After 7 and 3, the most relevant numbers are 6, and 4. When you place a bet, you want to stay off key numbers. And this is because this can be the difference between a victory, a defeat, or a push.
Here’s an example: Let’s say that you’re checking NFL Point Spreads with your bookie, and you notice a line with a -3. If you like that favorite, you might want to avoid that -3 and try to get the line at -2.5. The reason is that 3 is the most common margin of victory.
So, if you place a bet on the favorite team, let’s say the Pats at -3, and they win by three, you push. But, if you get the same line at -2.5 and New England wins by 3, then you win your wager because you avoided the key number.
NFL Point Spreads: Get The Hook
Now, let’s say that you want to place a bet on the underdog, with a +3 line. When you get the extra point, you get a +3.5 line, and that half-point is crucial.
This is because if the NFL game lands on 3, you push your wager. But, if you get a +3.5 betting line, you win. This is what is known in betting jargon as the hook. You can also apply the same thought process to the number seven.
For example, you’re checking NFL Point Spreads, and you stumble upon a nice line with a -7. In that case, you get the extra half point and turn that wagering line into a -6.5. So, if the favorite wins by exactly seven points, you’re able to cover the bet and win. If you fail to do this and take the line at -7, you can push the bet.
Now, if you take the underdog team while getting the half point, and the game lands on seven, you win the bet. What’s important is to always ask yourself if you’re betting near a key number. And if that’s the case, how can you get off that number to increase your chances of winning.
NFL Point Spreads: Home Field Advantage
Players love to bet favorite NFL Point Spreads. And we can’t deny the fact that home-field advantage does exist. This is because of the crowd noise, and the psychological impact on the rival. When the home team has possession, the crowd will remain in silence.
By doing so, they allow their quarterback to hear the helmet calls from the O.C. Then, the QB is able to share those instructions with his teammates.
The contrary is true. If the rival team has possession, the home crowd will scream at the top of their lungs. Sportsbooks do consider home-field advantage as a factor when creating their NFL Point Spreads.
But, all things considered, when you bet the spread, the home team must not only win but also cover.
NFL Point Spreads: Divisional Underdogs
Now in this NFL Point Spreads guide, let’s talk about divisional underdogs.
Now, to place a bet on favorites or underdogs only is not a winning proposition. In fact, underdogs and favorites have similar records related to the winnings they’ve produced.
But, there’s a big difference between divisional and non-divisional underdogs. And to understand this massive discrepancy allows you to bet with a profitable edge.
So, what are divisional underdogs? Let’s first clarify what non-divisional underdogs are: dog rivals from different divisions. And, according to historical stats, you can improve your win chances by betting divisional.
The reason is that since 2003, divisional dogs have gone 50.9% ATS. And non-divisional underdogs have gone 49.5% ATS.
That means that divisional underdogs lose less than non-divisional squads. This is because divisional rivals play each other a lot during the year.
So, teams are quite familiar with the other. And this familiarity allows the underdogs to play with more confidence versus divisional foes.
Road Divisional Underdogs
Things get even better when you place a bet on a divisional road underdog. And that’s because these teams are 53% ATS since 2003. Compared to 47.9% for non-divisional road teams.
Now that you know a little bit more about how NFL Point Spreads, go ahead and place a bet with your new knowledge. Good luck!